Conditional Amplification in CBAM Compliance: How National Capacity and Product Complexity Interact to Shape Default Value Dependence

Two exporters under the same CBAM rule can carry very different burdens. Product complexity and national capacity interact rather than add, so complex goods stay manageable where institutions are strong but cascade into failure where weak. Tested across 88 firms.

Conditional Amplification in CBAM Compliance: How National Capacity and Product Complexity Interact to Shape Default Value Dependence
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Authors

Alex Yang Liu
Alex Yang Liu

Alex is the founder of the Terawatt Times Institute, developing cognitive-structural frameworks for AI, energy transitions, and societal change. His work examines how emerging technologies reshape political behavior and civilizational stability.

Ethan K. Marlow
Ethan K. Marlow

U.S. energy strategist focused on the intersection of clean power, AI grid forecasting, and market economics. Ethan K. Marlow analyzes infrastructure stress points and the race toward 2050 decarbonization scenarios at the Terawatt Times Institute.

Maya Robinson
Maya Robinson

Maya is a communications strategist bridging technical modeling and public policy. She synthesizes research on grid modernization and decarbonization, ensuring data-driven insights reach legislators and industry stakeholders.

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