Kosovo has no country entry in the CBAM default tables of Regulation 2026/1740, so CN 7308 steel structures take the 5.064 tCO2e/t fallback vs 2.480 for Serbia. Precursors of unknown origin face 8.230. Metals made up over 99% of Kosovo's EUR 37.6m CBAM exports to the EU in 2025.
Moldova CBAM 2026: MMZ scrap-EAF long steel has no Moldova-specific default and falls to the BF/BOF Route C value of 3.996 tCO2e/t, about 3.07 certificates/t after free allocation. Transnistria verification risk, Holcim Rezina vs Ribnita Cement, Romanian grid shift, grid factors.
Guinea's CBAM position is a boundary misalignment: 71.9% of EU bauxite imports arrive outside CBAM scope, Simandou fines sit one pelletisation step from CN 2601 12, three 1.2 Mt/y alumina refineries are under construction, and a mining carbon price meets the limits of Article 9.
Malaysia’s CBAM exposure is small but sharply divided. Sarawak hydro aluminium has a major physical carbon advantage that current CBAM does not price through electricity, while expanding Malaysian BF steel places direct emissions firmly inside the CBAM boundary.
Montenegro enters definitive CBAM after KAP's closure removed a 0.57 TWh industrial load, raising structural electricity exportability into Italy under a 0.979 tCO2e/MWh default worth about EUR 74/MWh. Surviving billet output relies on imported aluminium of unknown carbon origin.
Bahrain enters definitive CBAM with an aluminium-led EU border exposure, a 12 Mt pellet platform feeding Gulf DRI, and gas-based fertilisers under a wider emissions boundary. Vol 36 maps the Regulatory Carbon Split Screen, Visibility Inversion and Persistent GCC Carbon Ancestry.
Chile looks lightly exposed to CBAM: covered goods are a rounding error against copper. At product level it supplies 43% of EU potassium nitrate imports. Its 2026 default of 1.730 tCO2e/t sits 0.34 below Israel and Jordan on the default route, an advantage needing no audit.
Namibia enters the EU CBAM era with low current exposure but large green iron, hydrogen and ammonia projects already reshaping investment. The report maps dual industrial metabolisms, regulatory carbon identity, market conversion, and how more project value can remain in Namibia
Libya’s CBAM story is shaped by a coupled carbon archipelago: concentrated steel, fertiliser, cement and energy nodes linked by fragile infrastructure. The report explains how EU evidence rules create regulatory carbon identities and begin to stratify market access.
Mauritanian iron ore is declared to EU customs as CN 2601 11 00, non-agglomerated, which Annex I does not list. Under Regulation 2025/2547 it cannot be a precursor either. Volume 32 covers scope, default values, clinker carbon inflow, the domestic carbon tax and 2031.
Omani urea faces €140.6 per tonne under CBAM; Egyptian urea faces €39.5. Both come from steam methane reforming of gas. Egypt holds an Annex I entry and Oman does not. Volume 31 quantifies the cost of that absence, and finds no procedure by which a country may ask to be listed.
The EU's CBAM was expected to penalise American steel. It won't. Total US exposure stays near 0.02% of transatlantic trade, the heaviest per-tonne charge lands on ammonia, and the mechanism changes behaviour only at the firm level—led by CF Industries—not at the national one.
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