Hiroto Nakamura

Hiroto Nakamura

Hiroto Nakamura is a research fellow focused on climate intelligence, satellite-based MRV, and AI-driven environmental monitoring. He analyzes geospatial data and verification systems to improve global carbon transparency and emissions accountability

8 posts
CBAM Country Intelligence South Africa 2026: The €0.77 Paradox — Price Signal Suppression and Systemic Industrial Retreat
Paid
CBAM | DPP

CBAM Country Intelligence South Africa 2026: The €0.77 Paradox — Price Signal Suppression and Systemic Industrial Retreat

South Africa is the CBAM-exposed economy where carbon price signal suppression and grid collapse intersect. A nominal R308/tCO₂ carbon tax delivers €0.77 effective rate. 53 of 62 ferro-alloy furnaces offline. Chrome ore exports at 20.55Mt record. This is retreat, not adaptation.

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92 Min
By: Hiroto Nakamura, Ethan K. Marlow
CBAM Country Intelligence Japan 2026: Institutional Convertibility, the Triple Lock, and the Logic of Bypass
Paid
CBAM | DPP

CBAM Country Intelligence Japan 2026: Institutional Convertibility, the Triple Lock, and the Logic of Bypass

TTI’s Japan CBAM audit reveals a 1.33% convertibility rate for domestic carbon costs. With hydrogen steelmaking lagging until 2040, a 6-year "Death Valley" forces a strategic bypass. Analyze how institutional maturity creates a legacy lock-in trap and why M&A is the new compliance.

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88 Min
By: Hiroto Nakamura, Maya Robinson
CBAM Country Intelligence Korea 2026: Mature ETS Economy Exposure: Effective Price Erosion and Surrogate Compliance Risk
Paid
CBAM | DPP

CBAM Country Intelligence Korea 2026: Mature ETS Economy Exposure: Effective Price Erosion and Surrogate Compliance Risk

South Korea faces a structural paradox under EU CBAM: operating a mature ETS yields near-zero financial benefit at the border. This report quantifies POSCO's exposure, detailing how Effective Price Erosion and Surrogate Compliance Risk threaten the competitiveness of Korean steel exports by 2034.

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90 Min
By: Preston Hayes, Ethan K. Marlow, Hiroto Nakamura, Maya Robinson
CBAM Country Intelligence UAE 2026: Carbon Accounting Paradox, Institutional Blindspot, and the Unopened Door
Paid
CBAM | DPP

CBAM Country Intelligence UAE 2026: Carbon Accounting Paradox, Institutional Blindspot, and the Unopened Door

In 2026, the UAE faces a €73.8M annual CBAM liability on EU aluminum exports. This report decodes the "Inversion Problem", where CBAM accounting boundaries erase solar green premiums, and maps the untapped Article 9 (SPA) pathway to recover capital and preserve market access.

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62 Min
By: Preston Hayes, Alex Yang Liu, Hiroto Nakamura, Ethan K. Marlow
CBAM Country Intelligence Turkey 2026: Structural Exposure, Institutional Fracture, and Strategic Pathways
Paid
CBAM | DPP

CBAM Country Intelligence Turkey 2026: Structural Exposure, Institutional Fracture, and Strategic Pathways

In 2026, Turkey’s 70% EAF steel advantage remains unmonetized under EU CBAM. This report reveals how default-value reliance traps large producers in a €120M–€180M annual penalty, and maps why a €2M MRV investment and unlocking Article 9 are critical to preserving market access.

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58 Min
By: Alex Yang Liu, Preston Hayes, Maya Robinson, Hiroto Nakamura
The Desert Solar Playbook: Why 185 Projects Failed and 27 Delivered 15%+ IRRs
Members
Finance | Policy

The Desert Solar Playbook: Why 185 Projects Failed and 27 Delivered 15%+ IRRs

Executive Tier | Series: THE DESERT DIVIDEND (Part 6 of 6) ◀️ Previous Article | ▶️ Next Article | 📚 The Series Index Executive Summary Between 2019 and 2024, the U.S. utility-scale solar industry experienced both unprecedented growth and massive project failures. Of 212 tracked projects exceeding 50MW in the Southwest desert regions, only 31

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37 Min
By: Preston Hayes, Hiroto Nakamura
Ecological Arbitrage: The Three Numbers Leading Investors Use to Rerate Desert Solar
Members
Renewables

Ecological Arbitrage: The Three Numbers Leading Investors Use to Rerate Desert Solar

Professional Tier | Series: THE DESERT DIVIDEND (Part 2 of 6) ◀️ Previous Article | ▶️ Next Article | 📚 The Series Index Executive Summary Solar in deserts extends beyond cheap land and abundant sun. Field operations reveal dynamics that standard financial models rarely capture. Three numbers reshape the economics: 3–6 years for ecological recovery,

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8 Min
By: Hiroto Nakamura
The Accidental Revolution: The Desert Rerate of Solar
Members
Renewables

The Accidental Revolution: The Desert Rerate of Solar

Public Access | Series: THE DESERT DIVIDEND (Part 1 of 6) ◀️ Previous Article | ▶️ Next Article | 📚 The Series Index Executive Summary Desert solar farms are producing a paradox. Built on fragile land, they can generate measurable ecological shifts: cooler soil, higher moisture, and vegetation recovery. These are not miracles, but straightforward physics

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12 Min
By: Hiroto Nakamura

Showing 12 of 8 total posts

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